Monthly Archives: December 2010

Ratified: End of The Year

For this “ratified’ I decided to wrap up the end of the year by talking about what I got right and what I got wrong, and present a few awards.

Right 

1. “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” (DADT) Repeal: I said that if this was passed, Obama would be able to rally his liberal base.  I was unsure when he would do it, but he did it his approval has gone up a little and he has made his liberal base a little happier.

2. Inner-Fighting Between Establishment and Tea Party GOP:  The establishment Republican Party, the McConnell’s and Boehner’s of the world basically re-branded themselves as the Tea Party to win in November.  Now, as a result, specific establishment Republicans irritated the Tea Party by passing the Bush tax cuts and have more government spending.  A war that I think will continue in 2012 between these two groups.

3. Common Ground: I said that the Tea Party and liberal Democrats must find common ground on foreign policy.  They did with cutting defense spending.  The Tea Party wants to cut spending generally and Democrats want to cut defense spending specifically.  Barney Frank and Ron Paul both lead the charge on this topic.

Wrong

1. Israel-Palestine Talks: I thought that President Obama was perfect for this because he was very slow and pragmatic with negotiation.  I also said getting past the settlements would be a big hurdle.  Unfortunately, the talks faded.  Obama did not use his strengths and neither side really conceded, so they fell apart.

2. Iran Sanctions:  The sanctions targeted at Iran’s oil and gas sector and the Revolutionary Guard actually worked.  I did not talk about this too much during the summer, but I thought that these sanctions would work like all others.  Suddenly, Iran is wanting to start talking with the U.S. again and cutting subsidies on oil and gas to make money.  The sanctions are actually hurting the economy.

3. Joe Sestak Bribe:  When President Obama’s administration offered Joe Sestak of Pennsylvania a possible job in the administration in exchange for not taking on Arlen Specter for the Democratic nomination, I thought for sure this was going to be a scandal to rock the administration.  It turned not to be nothing, but a short two day story and nothing came of it.

Awards

1. Democrat of the Year is Nancy Pelosi: Whether you like or loathe Nancy Pelosi, you must admit that she can get votes.  Her training as the House Whip gave her the training to line up for votes.  She passed a Healthcare Bill, originally with a public option and then got the votes to pass the Senate version.  Additionally, she passed a cap-and-trade bill, a financial regulation bill, the repeal of DADT, and all while taking a beating from the Republican establishment.  Not bad!
2. Republican of the Year is Scott Brown:  Honestly, if would have told me Scott Brown, the most hated by the Democrats for winning Ted Kennedy’s seat, would vote like an independent I would not have believed you.  Surprisingly, he voted for the financial regulation bill, the START Treaty, and DADT, plus others.  I said he has taken John McCain’s place as the newest maverick in the senate. 
3. World Leaders of the Year are David Cameron and Nick Clegg: These two were the odd couple.  After David Cameron’s Tories, conservatives in Britain, defeated Gordon Brown’s Labour Party, the liberal party, he claimed a new victory for the conservative movement not seen since Margaret Thatcher’s time.  Unfortunately, he did not have the votes to win have direct majority, so he had to pair up with Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats to form team.  This year they were able to cut the deficit by slashing various programs, cutting 8% of defense spending.  I wish Republicans and Democrats worked more like these two. 
Here are my links for today: 
1. My first thought was about finding a narrative
2. Changing history is the hardest foreign policy tool for the U.S. 
3. Find out about the world next year
I’ve enjoyed blogging in 2010.  Have a Happy New Year!!!!  See you in 2011!

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CFR.org – The World Next Year: 2011

CFR.org – The World Next Year: 2011

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Changing History

After reading John Mearsheimer’s compelling take on U.S. foreign policy, what I noticed was how the U.S. follows a specific track and stays with it despite the consequences.  More importantly, the U.S. since the end of the Cold War has perceived itself as the global police officer.  That means there were two tracks for the U.S. to follow and keep the world in line.  First, it could use selective engagement in conflicts.  Meaning, the U.S. could pre-empt attacks and enemies before they rose.  Essentially, this is the containment doctrine of the Cold War, just repackaged.  Second, the U.S. could purse offshore balancing.  Instead of trying to solve all the world’s problems, the U.S. would pick a country in that region to police it for us.  India and Japan do this in Asia, the U.S. has used Cuba, Haiti, and Panama to watch Latin America.  Iraq, Afghanistan, and Israel could be considered the watchdogs of the U.S.  It is like a neighborhood watch strategy to solve world problems.

Historically, the U.S. has used both doctrines to guide its foreign policy agenda.  Both also have their flaws, but Mearsheimer concludes offshore balancing is probably better.  The next task for Mearsheimer is to pick the motives for U.S. foreign policy.  I have identified two this week, American Exceptionalism and economic interests.  Security is another disguise for American foreign policy.  The pre-emptive attacks on Iraq are great examples of stopping terrorism before it strikes the U.S.  Fair enough, the U.S. wants to attack the problem at its source.  It is similar to the domestic strategy of going into the inner-city and changing their family value system to prevent poverty, missing all the other causes.  This analogy works perfectly with to describe why it is so complicated to go into a country and change its governmental structure.  Instituting a new government is one thing, but getting people to trust it and developing political parties for that system is quite another.

Both of these motives have guided history.  The actions of selective engagement and offshore balancing combined with the motives of American Exceptionalism, economic interests, and security interests provide a framework for looking at foreign policy over the last 10 years.  Most troubling are the motives and our wrong guessing.  No one likes to be wrong, especially nations making foreign policy. Its these methods that anger those we try to conquer.  For instance, why did Al-Qaeda attack the U.S. on 9/11.  The reason given was “they hate us for our freedoms,” not quite.  Specific policies advocated by the U.S. such as supporting Israel, having troops in Saudi Arabia during the first Gulf War, the coup in 1953 to put the Shah in power in Iran, and support for dictators in Egypt and Pakistan sometimes anger people.  These are what anger terrorists, not jealousy.

So, instead of reforming our own foreign policy attitudes we assume erroneously the wrong reason.  The problem is admitting to the people that we were wrong.  That requires redefining our history, not an easy task.  Changing our attitudes about history will be the start to redefining our foreign policy.  If your motives change, so do your strategies and that could help the U.S. in the long-term.

Photo Credit: Google Images

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Morning Memo: Friday, December 31

Ivory Coast President Laurent Gbagbo, left, welcomes Cape Verde, President, Pedro Pires, front right, at the Presidential Palace in Abidjan, Ivory Coast, Tuesday, Dec. 28, 2010. (AP Photo/Emanuel Ekra)

Good Morning!

1 day until 2011 and all is forgiven

Top Topics:

Civil War Possible In Ivory Coast

U.S. And Venezuela Ambassador Spat

U.S. Calls For Burma/Myanmar to Release All Political Prisoners To Begin Dialog

White House Recess Appointments Cause Stir

Iraqi Civilian Deaths Decease and Afghanistan Civilian Deaths Increase

New Natural Gas Field Found Off the Coast Of Israel

10 Senators To Watch On Energy Legislation

Protests In Bolivia Over Fuel Price Hikes

Figures of Note:

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Opinions of Note:

Edward Schumacher on a U.S.-Colombia Free Trade Bill That Did Not Make It Through The Senate

Michael Gerson and Christopher Hitchens Presenting View On Henry Kissinger’s Comments

My First Thought: Find A Narrative

If I were President Obama, I would take the advice of Jonathon Alter, the author of the book The Promise, and make a New Year’s Resolution to have a narrative that explains what he did.  Obama’s problem is not that he cannot solve problems, it that he can’t present a coherent narrative to the American people.  Baffling as it might sound for a president whose rhetorical style surpasses even the greatest speakers, the president has not told the American people why he did what he did.  Why did he tackle healthcare first?  Why was repealing DADT important?  Why was ratifying START necessary?  Why did he pass a tax deal?  All of these are tough questions that the president has not answered.  I wish he would just have an oval office speech explaining why he took these actions.

Substantively, this was the most productive congress in decades.  Democrats should have steamrolled Republicans during the November election, but because they did not have a coherent narrative to sell their accomplishments Republicans took the reigns and defined their accomplishments for them.  To bad Republicans defined the accomplishments as a socialist takeover of the U.S., not the most flattering way to portray an agenda.  Ronald Reagan is a man who I admire, not because I agreed with his politics or his policies, but he had the ability to woo crowds and inspire the American people.  He was called the “Great Communicator” for a reason.  ”Morning In America” was a great slogan to describe the times.  Obama needs some Reagan magic.  Not that Obama should mimic Reagan’s style, but Obama should find his own.  His professorial presentation helps him explain dire situations.  I want Professor Obama back.  Without a narrative, Obama could bring down unemployment, capture Osama bin Laden, bring about world peace, and even save the U.S. education system and he will lose November 2012.  He still has time, but he better find it quickly, for 2011 will soon run out and 2012 will be here soon enough.

Photo Credit: CTV

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Ratified

As we countdown to the new year and contemplate what we did not accomplish this year, read what I ratified today:

1. My first thought was about cultural relativism making democracy and development success harder
2. Some of the top policy fights between Democrats and Republicans in 2011
3. China’s trade deficit with the U.S. decreases and its Mexico trade increases
4. How the U.S. can fix its infrastructure for growth
5. 2011 could be the year for Russia’s WTO bid

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