Monthly Archives: July 2011

Should We Lose Our Top Spot If We Default?

The clock is ticking away as Washington drags closer and closer towards default without an actual deal.  Right now, the Boehner plan might pass the House.  Even if it does, it goes nowhere in the senate.  At this point, the House and Senate could work out a deal, but no one really knows.

My question would be: If we default, should we lose our top spot in the international community?  I only ask because not even the fragile European economies (Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, or Greece unless you count selective default) have defaulted yet.  Furthermore, the U.S. would be the first country large enough to make an impact.  The entire global economy is determined by confidence in the American economy and the U.S. dollar.  If that trust is lost, nothing good can happen.

If we default, the international community must have a conversation about who should be the responsible power in charge.  Since, as I argue, we have been in a downward slide for a while now, everyone knew this day would come.  Most just assumed we would hold on for another 20 years.  This impacts our power in negotiations, leadership, and how we conduct business in international organizations.  If we do default on our debt, that means we neglect our responsibility.  We lose trust in the international arena.  Building credibility will be tough again.

Now, this is not to say an automatic leader would emerge.  Every country would be in bad shape if we defaulted, including China.  This is just a conversation that I’m not hearing, but we should be having it just in case.

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Filed under debt ceiling, independent internationalist, power, U.S.

To Abstain or Not Abstain? That is the Question

Outside the nowhereland debt talks in Washington, the U.S. formally announced it would not vote for Palestine’s “Plan B” approach to statehood.  This involves Fatah going to the U.N. Security Council and declaring unilateral statehood.  If the Security Council approves, it does not automatically give the Palestinians a state, but it does provide them with leverage in the 40 plus year negotiations with Israel.

It is not surprising the U.S. wasn’t going to vote for unilateral Palestinian statehood.  Rather, the question is whether the U.S. will veto that unilateral declaration or just abstain, in which case it can still pass.  With the Obama administration’s continuing frustration at Benjamin Netanyahu over settlement freezes stopping the negotiations, abstaining is not a radical position for the U.S.  However, with an election year around the corner, the last thing President Obama wants to be hammered by the GOP for siding against Israel.

On the other hand, the veto looks out of fashion.  Both Russia and China have been abstaining on more votes than vetoing.  It gives you leverage of not getting yelled at for supporting a position, while not officially voting for it at the same time.  The Libya vote was an example of this. Great power politics might not be defined by asserting ultimate authority, but over being elastic to making friends.  What’s a better way to make friends and enemies by supporting and not supporting at the same time?

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Filed under foreign policy, independent internationalist, Israel/Palestine, U.N.

Obama vs. Boehner: The Final Smackdown

John Boehner, left, and Barack Obama are shown in this composite. | AP Photos

Tonight, both President Barack Obama and Speaker John Boehner made separate speeches addressing the problem of the debt ceiling.  With 8 days left, Washington and the world are on the edge of their seats for this nail biter to come to a close.  The worst part: no one knows what the ending is going to be.  Right now, I have a better chance at choosing which career I pursue than whether the debt ceiling will be increased.

Both speeches wreaked of a partisan stench that the president so clearly lambasted that no joke is necessary due to its ironic nature so gallantly portrayed in the speech.  In his speech, the president tried to come off as the calm, collective peace keeper who was the most reasonable man in the room.  He also gave a speech to his base that most progressives wished he would have given a month ago.  Once again, he went after corporate jet owners, hedge fund managers, and rejected the GOP’s so called “Cut, Cap, and Balance” bill (which failed in the senate) as just a plan for cuts.  Instead, the president recommended a balanced approach of tax increases and spending cuts.  He also endorsed Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s Plan to increase the debt ceiling, without serious cuts, and extend it past the 2012 election.

Boehner’s speech portrayed him as the realistic businessman with a bizarre combination of Jefferson Smith and a veteran politician rolled into one contradictory human being.  He called for “Cut, Cap, and Balanced” to be the approach congress should take.  The speaker also pledged no tax increases, again. His plan would raise the debt ceiling until the middle of 2012 and then add another vote on the debt ceiling then.  His plan would also promise a “super committee” made up of representatives from both sides of the aisle to come together and propose a bipartisan plan for spending cuts. Finally, the speaker would push for a balanced budget amendment to voted on in both chambers in the winter or spring.

Beyond their obvious partisan flaws, the speeches were not great political calculations.  First, Obama will not get any tax increases, maybe some loopholes or loss of subsidies, but that is about all he can hope for.  Second, there will not be a balanced budget amendment to the U.S. Constitution passing anytime soon.  Ratifying an amendment is tedious, arduous, and hasn’t been done in about 20 years.  I’m surprised and disappointed the president did not attack this more.  He is a real policy wonk at heart and listing reasons why a balanced budget amendment is not feasible for Washington is not hard to do.  Finally, this new “super committee” is hardly going to help.  We had the Simpson-Bowles plan, the Gang of Six plan, and details for deals made by the president and Boehner.  All of them come out the same, they are a no go.  The president is right in this respect.  Real deficit reduction for political compromise requires both tax increases and spending cuts.  All bipartisan plans offered these ideas and no one took them.  Politicians like cutting the deficit as long as it cuts only what they want or gets revenue their way.  In the end, there are only so many ways to cut the deficit and one more commission report yielding the same results won’t get us anywhere.

Both sides won points with their base and wanted the people to flood the congressional phone lines and email inboxes with disgruntled letters.  Something tells me both sides see real negotiation as futile and have now resorted to P.R. wars.  For the sake of the full faith and credit of the United States, I hope maybe tomorrow the kids will grow up and negotiate.  Otherwise, prayer is about all we have left.

Photo Credit: Politico

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Filed under Congress, debt ceiling, Democrats, House, independent internationalist, John Boehner, Obama, Republicans, senate, speeches

WHO Declares 5 Regions of Somalia Close to Famine

The World Health Organization (WHO) is warning that Somalia, a country that is riddled with civil strife, a strong Al-Qaeda presence, and has been without a strong central government since 1991, has many regions sliding closer to famine.  The Voice of America notes:

She says up to 50 percent of children in southern regions of Somalia are malnourished.  And, adults too are malnourished because of lack of food.  She says bad nutrition leads to bad health.  She says there is a remarkable increase in measles and waterborne diseases also are on the rise.  
WHO has recorded more than 50,000 cases of acute watery diarrhea and cholera since January.   Everard says there is no breakdown as to the number of cholera cases.  But, adds the disease is under control.  She says there is no cholera epidemic because WHO has set up a good monitoring system. Two days ago, the United Nations declared two regions in southern Somalia as suffering from famine.  Everard says a third region also is affected and famine appears to be spreading to other regions as well.  “We have declared only three regions in south Somalia.  But, the five others are on the brink of also being seen as a famine.   So, these areas indeed appear to be coming to a full-blown famine if we are not responding from now on to this enormous crisis,” she said.  

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Filed under Africa, independent internationalist, somalia, U.N., WHO

Graphic of the Day: South China Sea Debate

Map

ASEAN continues to debate the South China Sea problem between China, the Philippines, and Vietnam.  The BBC explains this fight better than I can.  Basically, it has all the elements of international intrigue: oil reserves, a large superpower asserting itself, and small countries standing up for the little guy.

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Filed under ASEAN, Asia, China, independent internationalist, South China Sea