By Luke Brinker
Since independence, Pakistan’s politics have been defined by short intervals of civilian governments, punctuated by coups d’état and periods of military rule. (For more on this, I highly recommend current Pakistani Ambassador to the U.S. Husain Haqqani’s superb 2005 book, Pakistan: Between Mosque and Military).
Civilian governments in Pakistan tend to fall when the elites of the Pakistani military and Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate (ISI) perceive that the civilian leaders are weak and ineffectual in the face of security and/or economic challenges. There’s reason to believe Pakistan is vulnerable to a coup now. President Asif Ali Zardari and the ruling Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) are languishing in public opinion polls. Despite public protests over U.S. military operations in Pakistan, it’s widely believed that Zardari and Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani quietly give assent to such operations. The public protests are aimed at mollifying vociferously anti-American public opinion in Pakistan. But the ISI, with longstanding links to militant groups, is growing impatient. The U.S. raid on Osama bin Laden’s Abbotobad compound in May raised the intelligence and military establishment’s furor. Many assume that if a military coup comes, it will be because of the Pakistani government’s unpopularity stemming from its unwillingness to more strongly assert sovereignty in the northwestern tribal areas.
As if the Pakistani government didn’t confront a grave problem in militancy along the Afghan-Pakistani border, the southern port city of Karachi has been mired in ethnic violence for the past few weeks. Upwards of 1000 people have died, and the violence has exposed fissures within the Pakistani government. Feuding politicians, increasing insecurity, and a population desperately seeking order – it has all the makings of another military coup.
