Tag Archives: South Carolina primary

The State of Play after the Perry Withdrawal

By Luke Brinker

Lagging in the polls and calculating that a unified conservative front is necessary to derail front-runner Mitt Romney in South Carolina, Rick Perry is set to end his presidential campaign and endorse Newt Gingrich this morning.

Perry’s withdrawal comes as Romney’s lead in South Carolina has diminished amid questions about his record at Bain Capital and his conservative credentials. Although an influential group of evangelical Christians endorsed Rick Santorum this past Saturday and pledged to assist his South Carolina campaign, Gingrich has emerged as Romney’s biggest threat in polls of the Palmetto State. By endorsing Gingrich, Perry adds to the narrative that the momentum in South Carolina is on the former House speaker’s side.

Of course, Perry’s support in South Carolina has been marginal, even as he staked his campaign’s fortunes on a strong performance in the state’s primary. The latest RealClearPolitics average of polls there has Perry at just 4.4 percent. Romney’s average lead over Gingrich is 7.6 percent, so getting all of Perry’s supporters wouldn’t be enough to propel Gingrich to victory on Saturday. On the other hand, supporters of hard-right Rick Santorum may look at Perry’s Gingrich endorsement and Gingrich’s rising fortunes in the polls and conclude that it’s best to support Gingrich as the most viable right-wing alternative to Romney. These hard-core conservatives are worried about a repeat of 2008, when John McCain beat the more conservative Mike Huckabee in South Carolina, largely thanks to the splintering of the conservative vote among Huckabee, Fred Thompson, and, yes, Romney. If the McCain win of four years ago is to be avoided, conservatives will need to coalesce behind Gingrich.

Still, Romney may yet prevail on Saturday. ABC News plans to air an interview tonight with Gingrich’s second wife, Marianne Gingrich, whom he divorced after conducting a years-long affair with current wife Callista Bisek Gingrich. In socially conservative South Carolina, it’s hard to see how this helps Gingrich, but many conservatives could see ABC’s decision to show the interview as part of a vicious smear campaign by pointy-headed elites in the lamestream media.

But even if Gingrich triumphs in South Carolina, Romney remains a solid favorite to capture the GOP nomination. Noting that the state’s primary has been won by ever GOP nominee since 1980, Gingrich’s pitch to supporters is that if he wins on Saturday night, he’s virtually certain to be the candidate to take on President Barack Obama in the fall. Yet political streaks are not iron rules. Until 2008, every presidential candidate to win Missouri since 1960 had gone on to win the presidency. The state lost its bellwether status when John McCain narrowly defeated Obama there. So while a white, conservative, older state offers an excellent read on the pulse of a white, conservative, older party, it’s quite possible that Romney could lose South Carolina but ultimately win the party nod. His financial advantages are formidable and he’s finally making solid gains in his national polling numbers. And as the Marianne Gingrich interview reminds us, Romney’s main opponent has no dearth of baggage.

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Filed under 2012 Election, Rick Perry

The Newt Gingrich-Juan Williams Exchange in Context

By Luke Brinker

As the New York Times noted in its review of Monday’s Fox News-Wall Street Journal presidential primary debate in South Carolina, a racially charged exchange between Newt Gingrich and co-moderator Juan Williams was one of the night’s highlights:

In fact, Mr. Gingrich won some of his loudest and most sustained applause when the liberal Fox News analyst Juan Williams pressed him on his call for schoolchildren to work as janitors, for his description of Mr. Obama as a “food stamp president” and remarks that Mr. Williams said, to loud boos, seemed “intended to belittle the poor.”

At one point rolling his eyes, cocking his head to the side and saying with mock impatience, “Well, first of all, Juan,” Mr. Gingrich seemed to revel in using Mr. Williams as a foil.

“The fact is more people have been put on food stamps by Barack Obama than any president in American history,” Mr. Gingrich said, a claim that is numerically true but ignored the depth of the recession that Mr. Obama inherited when he took office. “I know that among the politically correct, you’re not supposed to use facts that are uncomfortable.”

The reason more people are on food stamps under the Obama presidency is because of the deep economic recession the president inherited. One of the most common conservative talking points is that the national debt has increased faster under President Obama than under any other president, but this falsely implies that President Obama has engaged in a splurge of spending on numerous new programs. The increase in the national debt under this administration occurred because of declining tax revenues amid a poor economic climate and the triggering of automatic stabilizers – programs like unemployment insurance, transfer programs, and, yes, food stamps. In a recession, more people are eligible for these programs, so that spending is automatically triggered.

So when Gingrich refers to President Obama as the “food stamp president,” he clearly isn’t interested in having a serious discussion of basic budgetary operations. Instead, as Williams insinuated, he’s making a racially charged appeal to bigoted elements of the GOP base. It’s what’s known as a dog whistle. The intended audience – those who associate welfare programs with those who are lazy and black – hears the cue, but it’s veiled enough to have an air of plausible deniability about it. (“Of course I don’t intend anything racial! I’m just pointing out that under Obama, more Americans are on food stamps.”) As I’ve written before, Tea Party supporters (who are synonymous with the GOP base and who are quite numerous in South Carolina) are substantially more likely than the public at large to harbor suspicious or outright derisive views toward minorities. Here’s part of a 2010 Newsweek story I’ve previously excerpted:

So a new poll by researchers at the University of Washington caught my eye. The findings are sure to fan the flames further. “People who approve of the Tea Party, more than those who don’t approve, have more racist attitudes,” says Christopher Parker, a University of Washington professor who directed the survey. “And not only that, but more homophobic and xenophobic attitudes.” For instance, respondents were asked whether they agreed with various characterizations of different racial groups. Only 35 percent of those who strongly approve of the tea party agreed that blacks are hardworking, compared with 55 percent of those who strongly disapprove of the tea party. On whether blacks were intelligent, 45 percent of the tea-party supporters agreed, compared with 59 percent of the tea-party opponents. And on the issue of whether blacks were trustworthy, 41 percent of the tea-party supporters agreed, compared with 57 percent of the tea-party opponents.

Winning a Republican primary in South Carolina without the votes of people who hold these views simply isn’t possible. Whether or not Gingrich has personal antipathy toward blacks isn’t the point here. What’s undeniable is that he’s pandering to those who do.

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Filed under 2012 Election, race issues

Romney, Envy, and South Carolina

By Luke Brinker

As a follow-up to my thoughts on Mitt Romney’s comment that critiques of Bain Capital are rooted in jealousy, it’s worth noting how foolish his remarks appear given that he has a chance to seal the deal in South Carolina a week from Saturday.

Every GOP nominee since 1980 has won the state’s primary, and coming off the heels of victories in Iowa and New Hampshire, a Romney triumph in the Palmetto State would effectively dash conservative hopes of grinding the former Massachusetts governor’s campaign to a halt. Romney currently leads in polling for the primary, although there are signs that lead may be slipping in the face of anti-Bain attacks from Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry. Why might the Bain issue resonate there? The state has an unemployment rate of nearly 10 percent – well above the national rate of 8.5 percent, and far higher than in Iowa and New Hampshire. For Romney to suggest that those troubled by Bain-directed layoffs are motivated by “envy” is, then, particularly tone-deaf. The last thing voters of a long-suffering state want to hear is a man born into opulence respond to their grievances with, “You’re just jealous of me.”

As this Matt Yglesias post points out, there’s reason for ordinary citizens to feel some measure of “envy,” even if basic fairness is the driving concern of inequality-focused movements like Occupy Wall Street. Consider this graph comparing the rise in gross domestic product (GDP) per family and the median family income in the postwar years:

But remember, as Willard says, we’re only supposed to talk about these things in “quiet rooms.”

Will Romney’s “envy” interview cause him serious harm in South Carolina? Quite possibly. Will he still go on to win the nomination, absent a total blowout in the state? Assuredly. But it’s out-of-touch moments like yesterday’s interview that highlight why Romney may well be damaged goods by the time the general election campaign begins in earnest.

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Filed under 2012 Election, Mitt Romney

No South Carolina Firewall for Gingrich

By Luke Brinker

As Ron Paul eclipses Newt Gingrich in Iowa and Mitt Romney begins to retake the momentum nationally in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, two new polls raise the question of whether Gingrich can bounce back with a win in the crucial South Carolina primary.

RealClearPolitics has Gingrich leading his rivals in the Palmetto State by an almost-18 point margin. Two polls released today, from Insider Advantage and Clemson University, have Gingrich enjoying leads over Romney of 12 and 17 percent, respectively. Given that the winner of the South Carolina primary has gone on to win the Republican nomination in every election since 1980, that’s not insignificant. (It’s not that there’s some special South Carolina magic bestowed upon primary victors; the state’s older, conservative, white, evangelical Republican electorate is simply a microcosm of the party’s national base.) But if, as is now expected, Gingrich loses in the Iowa caucuses and Romney maintains his impressive lead in New Hampshire, the former Speaker is unlikely to enjoy a South Carolina firewall.

The reason comes down to momentum. If Gingrich can’t score a win in Iowa after leading there for weeks, significant questions will ensue about his staying power as a right-wing alternative to Romney. If Gingrich heads into South Carolina looking like a loser, there’s little reason to expect him to win over key state conservatives like Sen. Jim DeMint. Tea Party darling Nikki Hayley, the state’s governor, is no longer even up for grabs; she endorsed Romney last week.

Finally, consider where the polling for the GOP race in South Carolina stood on December 19, 2007, per RealClearPolitics. Mike Huckabee (who actually turned his late-fall surge into an Iowa win) led his rivals by nearly 7 points. Romney, who wound up finishing fourth, was in second place. The eventual winner of the primary, John McCain, was mired in fifth place – with just a month to go before the primary.

I’m feeling better and better about never buying the dearly departed Gingrich boomlet.

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Filed under 2012 Election, Republicans