Tag Archives: South Carolina

Mark Sanford: The New Rick Santorum

On Tuesday night, former Governor of South Carolina Mark Sanford defeated Elizabeth Colbert-Busch for South Carolina’s first congressional district House seat.  Sanford not only won the race, but he won by nine points (54-45%).  Journalists, pundits, and casual observers of politics are all pondering the same question:  How did a man who only four years ago cheated his wife with an Argentinian woman and lied to the citizens of South Carolina claiming he was hiking the Appalachian Trail while he was off on more exotic excursions?  More to the point, this is what everybody was thinking:


From reading reports, he pulled a Rick Santorum, which does not mean what you probably think it means.  First, Sanford ran a very Republican district, never underestimate the power of partisan voting blocs.  Second, he was personable and charismatic.  He became the “New Mark Sanford.”  Finally, as Chris Cillizza and Sean Sullivan at the Washington Post point out, Colbert-Busch tried to turn the focus of the campaign on Sanford and it failed.

So how does this connect to Rick Santorum?  When Rick Santorum ran for the Republican nomination in 2012, he had to reset his image from the anti-gay, anti-woman, and anti-modern image that voters conceived of him into a plausible nominee.  His best route was to win the Iowa caucuses first and hope that would lead to victory in other states. Of course, Santorum couldn’t take back all the problematic statements he made in the past, so he decided to don this look:

GOP voters found this image to be friendly and his style to be easygoing.  Not to mention, the former Pennsylvania senator visited all 99 Iowa counties before the caucuses ended and quickly mobilized a large evangelical voter network the weekend before the contest.  Nevertheless, he won Iowa, and he did it with charm.  Since Santorum couldn’t replicate that strategy everywhere else in the country, he lost the nomination (one of many reasons anyway).  Without the tacky sweater vest, Sanford incorporated a similar strategy of handshaking and baby kissing that helped him win South Carolina, which is not all that “inconceivable” after all.

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The Newt Gingrich-Juan Williams Exchange in Context

By Luke Brinker

As the New York Times noted in its review of Monday’s Fox News-Wall Street Journal presidential primary debate in South Carolina, a racially charged exchange between Newt Gingrich and co-moderator Juan Williams was one of the night’s highlights:

In fact, Mr. Gingrich won some of his loudest and most sustained applause when the liberal Fox News analyst Juan Williams pressed him on his call for schoolchildren to work as janitors, for his description of Mr. Obama as a “food stamp president” and remarks that Mr. Williams said, to loud boos, seemed “intended to belittle the poor.”

At one point rolling his eyes, cocking his head to the side and saying with mock impatience, “Well, first of all, Juan,” Mr. Gingrich seemed to revel in using Mr. Williams as a foil.

“The fact is more people have been put on food stamps by Barack Obama than any president in American history,” Mr. Gingrich said, a claim that is numerically true but ignored the depth of the recession that Mr. Obama inherited when he took office. “I know that among the politically correct, you’re not supposed to use facts that are uncomfortable.”

The reason more people are on food stamps under the Obama presidency is because of the deep economic recession the president inherited. One of the most common conservative talking points is that the national debt has increased faster under President Obama than under any other president, but this falsely implies that President Obama has engaged in a splurge of spending on numerous new programs. The increase in the national debt under this administration occurred because of declining tax revenues amid a poor economic climate and the triggering of automatic stabilizers – programs like unemployment insurance, transfer programs, and, yes, food stamps. In a recession, more people are eligible for these programs, so that spending is automatically triggered.

So when Gingrich refers to President Obama as the “food stamp president,” he clearly isn’t interested in having a serious discussion of basic budgetary operations. Instead, as Williams insinuated, he’s making a racially charged appeal to bigoted elements of the GOP base. It’s what’s known as a dog whistle. The intended audience – those who associate welfare programs with those who are lazy and black – hears the cue, but it’s veiled enough to have an air of plausible deniability about it. (“Of course I don’t intend anything racial! I’m just pointing out that under Obama, more Americans are on food stamps.”) As I’ve written before, Tea Party supporters (who are synonymous with the GOP base and who are quite numerous in South Carolina) are substantially more likely than the public at large to harbor suspicious or outright derisive views toward minorities. Here’s part of a 2010 Newsweek story I’ve previously excerpted:

So a new poll by researchers at the University of Washington caught my eye. The findings are sure to fan the flames further. “People who approve of the Tea Party, more than those who don’t approve, have more racist attitudes,” says Christopher Parker, a University of Washington professor who directed the survey. “And not only that, but more homophobic and xenophobic attitudes.” For instance, respondents were asked whether they agreed with various characterizations of different racial groups. Only 35 percent of those who strongly approve of the tea party agreed that blacks are hardworking, compared with 55 percent of those who strongly disapprove of the tea party. On whether blacks were intelligent, 45 percent of the tea-party supporters agreed, compared with 59 percent of the tea-party opponents. And on the issue of whether blacks were trustworthy, 41 percent of the tea-party supporters agreed, compared with 57 percent of the tea-party opponents.

Winning a Republican primary in South Carolina without the votes of people who hold these views simply isn’t possible. Whether or not Gingrich has personal antipathy toward blacks isn’t the point here. What’s undeniable is that he’s pandering to those who do.

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Filed under 2012 Election, race issues

Romney, Envy, and South Carolina

By Luke Brinker

As a follow-up to my thoughts on Mitt Romney’s comment that critiques of Bain Capital are rooted in jealousy, it’s worth noting how foolish his remarks appear given that he has a chance to seal the deal in South Carolina a week from Saturday.

Every GOP nominee since 1980 has won the state’s primary, and coming off the heels of victories in Iowa and New Hampshire, a Romney triumph in the Palmetto State would effectively dash conservative hopes of grinding the former Massachusetts governor’s campaign to a halt. Romney currently leads in polling for the primary, although there are signs that lead may be slipping in the face of anti-Bain attacks from Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry. Why might the Bain issue resonate there? The state has an unemployment rate of nearly 10 percent – well above the national rate of 8.5 percent, and far higher than in Iowa and New Hampshire. For Romney to suggest that those troubled by Bain-directed layoffs are motivated by “envy” is, then, particularly tone-deaf. The last thing voters of a long-suffering state want to hear is a man born into opulence respond to their grievances with, “You’re just jealous of me.”

As this Matt Yglesias post points out, there’s reason for ordinary citizens to feel some measure of “envy,” even if basic fairness is the driving concern of inequality-focused movements like Occupy Wall Street. Consider this graph comparing the rise in gross domestic product (GDP) per family and the median family income in the postwar years:

But remember, as Willard says, we’re only supposed to talk about these things in “quiet rooms.”

Will Romney’s “envy” interview cause him serious harm in South Carolina? Quite possibly. Will he still go on to win the nomination, absent a total blowout in the state? Assuredly. But it’s out-of-touch moments like yesterday’s interview that highlight why Romney may well be damaged goods by the time the general election campaign begins in earnest.

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Filed under 2012 Election, Mitt Romney

No South Carolina Firewall for Gingrich

By Luke Brinker

As Ron Paul eclipses Newt Gingrich in Iowa and Mitt Romney begins to retake the momentum nationally in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, two new polls raise the question of whether Gingrich can bounce back with a win in the crucial South Carolina primary.

RealClearPolitics has Gingrich leading his rivals in the Palmetto State by an almost-18 point margin. Two polls released today, from Insider Advantage and Clemson University, have Gingrich enjoying leads over Romney of 12 and 17 percent, respectively. Given that the winner of the South Carolina primary has gone on to win the Republican nomination in every election since 1980, that’s not insignificant. (It’s not that there’s some special South Carolina magic bestowed upon primary victors; the state’s older, conservative, white, evangelical Republican electorate is simply a microcosm of the party’s national base.) But if, as is now expected, Gingrich loses in the Iowa caucuses and Romney maintains his impressive lead in New Hampshire, the former Speaker is unlikely to enjoy a South Carolina firewall.

The reason comes down to momentum. If Gingrich can’t score a win in Iowa after leading there for weeks, significant questions will ensue about his staying power as a right-wing alternative to Romney. If Gingrich heads into South Carolina looking like a loser, there’s little reason to expect him to win over key state conservatives like Sen. Jim DeMint. Tea Party darling Nikki Hayley, the state’s governor, is no longer even up for grabs; she endorsed Romney last week.

Finally, consider where the polling for the GOP race in South Carolina stood on December 19, 2007, per RealClearPolitics. Mike Huckabee (who actually turned his late-fall surge into an Iowa win) led his rivals by nearly 7 points. Romney, who wound up finishing fourth, was in second place. The eventual winner of the primary, John McCain, was mired in fifth place – with just a month to go before the primary.

I’m feeling better and better about never buying the dearly departed Gingrich boomlet.

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